By: Ganesh Sovani
ganesh_sovani@rediffmail.com
October 20, 2004

The re-appointment of Lal Krishna Advani as the president of BJP taking place, on the back drop of election verdict in Maharashtara has practically flummoxed all and sundry.  The talk of Venkaiah Naidu resigning over the inability of the BJP led NDA’s to retain the power in the fourteenth Lok Sabha polls conducted in May this year, was much in the air for quite some time.

However, Advani’s re-appointment comes at a time, when there was a serious talk about party’s second rung leadership taking over from Naidu, who had revealed his intentions to resign soon after Lok Sabha polls. Precisely for this reason, it is unfair to attribute the Naidu’s resignation with the failure of the BJP to snatch the power in Maharashtra in conjunction with its local allay Shiv Sena.

Even before the Vidhan Sabha polls in Maharahstra were announced, the Indian media, both print and electronic, were carrying the write-ups as to who could possibly take over from Venkaiah Naidu, when his term was slated to expire next year. The media was completely agog with the stories discussing with the pros and cons of the second rung leaders in the BJP like Pramod Mahajan, Uma Bharati, Sushama Swaraj and Arun Jaitley. Sadly, barring from Uma Bharti, none has a mass base as they all prefer to get elected from the upper house of Parliament.

The immediate reaction over Advani re-appointment is that either the BJP has no faith in the second rung leaders or that none of them is ripe to take over as the chieftain of the party. But in the process, BJP has lost chance to test the abilities or the qualities of the second rung leaders in the process. No harm would have caused in experimenting with the second rung leaders even as a stop gap arrangement, as barring Bihar polls, no immediate state assembly polls are round the corner. Even in Bihar, where the assembly polls are slated to take place in February next year, the outcome is well known and therefore, the question as to who is at the helm of affairs of the BJP at the national level perhaps becomes irrelevant. 

While, RSS has to yet to come out openly over Advani’s fresh responsibility, the VHP has pooh-poohed this move and Ashok Singhal was just short of saying that neither he nor his organization has any faith in Advani. It may be recalled, that ever since Advani had pronounced not once, but twice, on the floor of the house of Indian Parliament, when he was Dy. P.M. of the NDA government, that India could never be called as ‘Hindu Rashtra’ as the nation had already adopted the Indian Constitution, the relationship between VHP and Advani have considerably embittered. Seems VHP is unwilling to pardon him for ever.

By appointing a septuagenarian leader as a party president, the party seems taken a grave risk. Advani is 76 and would be 81, when country would go for fifteenth Parliamentary polls. It is unrealistic to expect, that he would be able to garner the votes, in the similar fashion, as he did, when he had virtually enamoured the country with ‘Ram Mandir’ wave during 1991 Lok Sabha polls. This is for a simple reason, that Mandir issue is no longer alive, so much so that it was dead even in 1993 when the assembly polls were conducted in UP. Since then UP have under gone for three assembly polls, and BJP has not harped the Mandir issue it even at once. The truth is that the UP populace is no longer interested or associated in Ram Mandir movement, a fact, which VHP is not willing to accept.  

Even if Advani led BJP is to adopt ‘Hindutva’ as party’s slogan or as a strategy, then it carries a huge risk. Should it do so, then the BJP stands to become isolated even with it’s NDA allies, as not even a half dozen former NDA allies are with the BJP as on the date. It is presumptuous to except that BJP can fight on it’s own, the next general election, i.e. without any tie-up with it’s former NDA allies. Should it do so, or should destiny compel it to do so, the out come is foregone conclusion.

Therefore, the situation demands an extremely realistic approach. The more BJP tries to play ‘Hindutva’ card, the more it would be consolidating or cementing the minority vote bank with the Congress and marginalizing itself in the process. And if the results of the fourteenth Lok Sabha by-elections in Gujrat are anything to go by(where BJP lost it’s eleven sitting MPs), there is no certainty that Modi would retain his power, in the next assembly polls in Gujrat which are three years away from now.

The election results in Maharashtra have already revealed that BJP failed to connect voters’ pulses and it also failed to exploit the misrule of the Congress – NCP government practically on all fronts. The party also failed to mobilizes the resources and it had almost given up a fortnight before the polls. When the party had secured a lead in 80 assembly segments in the wake of May Lok Sabha polls, it could secure win only in 54, out of 111.

By the same token, it needs to be seen, how far the BJP, under the leadership of old warhorse Advani would be able harp on the failures of the incumbent Congress led UPA government on the major fronts. North – East seems to be on turmoil than ever before and it would be good in the interest of the party to focus it’s attention over the neglected seven sisters of the country. It is such issue, where even BJP’s NDA allies need not have to differ with the BJP. Therefore, greater BJP emphasise on core issues affecting the country and a common man, better it would have chances of keeping NDA intact and on a solid base. 

In the end, it is necessary to emphasise that there has to be a ‘Laxman Rekha’ between BJP and RSS-VHP. Both RSS and VHP must give sufficient liberty and autonomy to BJP to draw up it’s own programmes and policies. If this line, obliterated, then BJP would loose it’s secular character, which Atal Bihari Vajpayee has built over the years and the party will again compelled to under go bitter experiment of 1980, when the former Jana Sangha  was compelled to withdraw from Janata Party and reincarnate which is known as today’s BJP.

All in all, there is no denying of the fact Advani faces an uphill task than ever before.  He will have to restore party discipline which had been found wanting over the last couple of years. Moreover, he will have draw up economic programmes which will take care of all sections of the society. ‘Development’ should be the core issue for Advani, which is evident for the manner in which the BJP has come out with 114 page magazine captioned ‘21st Century – India’s century ’ recently. This excellently complied and edited under BJP's vice president Prof. Bal Apte, this publication named as 'Kamal' carries articles written by twenty four eminent personalities in the field of trade, economy, finance, commerce, banking, rural development, defence, terrorism, policing, security, environment, women emancipation, etc. Former RBI governor  Bimal Jalan, who is apparently close to Congress I these days, too has contributed for the BJP publication. What is the most laudable feature of this publication is that barring an article of Bihar Governor retired Karnataka High Court Rama Jois’ article captioned ‘Vedic reflections of the New Millennium’  there is no place for the sentimental issues like Ram Mandir, Hinduism, etc. in this magazine.   

As is it’s wont, the India media is likely to read too much in Advani attending RSS’s annual Vijaya Dashami (Dushehara) rally at Nagpur. However, he can not afford to distance himself from the RSS and he utilized the opportunity in attending the Nagpur rally to re-emphasise his association with the RSS for understable reasons and that too quite openly. There is no denying of the fact, that BJP derives considerable manpower from the RSS when it comes to election.    

If the BJP were to brush aside the core issues like development and law & order and give preference to the sentimental issues like ‘Hindutva’ or ‘Ram Mandir’, then one wonders, whether Advani’s re - appointment at the helm of party’s affairs would be able to yield good dividends for the party.   

The winter session of Parliament starting in December would serve as a good barometer to indicate his policies, preferences as well priorities.  

Ganesh Sovani