By: Hari Sud
September 25, 2004

Only about 45 days left for US presidential elections and Democratic Party candidate, senator John Kerry is in dead heat with incumbent President Bush in opinion polls (read in between the lines – trailing). In fact momentum was lost to President Bush immediately after the Republican Party convention early in September. The battle ground states, which were won over by the Democrats in the previous contest, are showing a bit of reluctance to vote Democrat this November. For a common person in the street, unattached to either Democrats or Republicans, it would appear that this election is no contest. The incumbent is supposed to loose. The reasons are:

• A sputtering economy, full of mixed message on all sectors of economic activity.

• Things going badly in Iraq War with American death toll crossing over one thousand and rising everyday.

• Oil prices an at all time high of $45 a barrel and still climbing.

• Osama Bin Laden nowhere in American grasps.

• European allies are a mixed bag with British steadfast in their support on Iraq and other allies deserting the American cause.

• Al Qaeda threatening more attacks on US soil.

• And the master of disguises and switching sides, General Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan is badly bogged down in the tribal war in the Pakistan-Afghan border while searching for Al Qaeda. He has promised all kinds of support to the US.

With so many negatives to President Bush’s credit one may ask - why people in the main street America are indicating their support to President Bush?

The answer lies exclusively in the TV image of John Kerry and bad advice he is getting on issues of the day.

What is John Kerry saying and why is he not being heard?

John Kerry is saying that::

• Iraq war is no longer a patriotic war for America’s freedom. It is being executed on a flawed judgment on Weapons of Mass Destruction. It should be ended.

• Some of the ills of the economy are due to tax breaks, which President Bush handed over to the very rich of America..

• Outsourcing is bad for economy and is responsible for high unemployment rate in the urban white collard segment of the population.

• Oil prices are to be brought down with careful diplomacy after Iraq withdrawal.

• Energies are to be refocused on terrorism, Afghanistan and building strategic partnerships in Middle East. Effort to hunt Osama Bin Laden is to be redoubled.

• If Pakistan is unable to grab Al Qaeda in Pakistan – Afghan border then US troops are to be used.

• Befriend European allies again.

John Kerry is trying very hard to deliver his message. He is going to all the US states and shaking hands and holding town hall meetings. But the crowd enthusiasm is waning as is evident from the people turnout. Hence everything is left to the print and electronic media to carry his message to the rest of America. At the moment the media is neutral but distinct advantage to candidate Bush has started to appear.

Does John Kerry’s Campaign need a Rescue?

Yes, it does. All what John Kerry is saying is worth listening to. Somehow the delivery lacks the punch; hence not too many people are listening. As a matter of fact this is what his problem has been since the beginning of the year. He was not the frontrunner amongst the Democrats. That advantage belonged to Jon Dean. Some how John Dean’s campaign imploded from within offering John Kerry his chance. The party heavy weights favored him over the other candidates. Confident Kerry raided Dean’s camp for talent and got Dean’s best people to run his campaign. During the pre- convention blitz, it appeared that Kerry was doing well among the Democrats. But after his nomination by his party and President Bush’s nomination by his party, it appears that Kerry’s message has been lost. The missing element in his message is lack of crispness and his TV image, which has not been polished to make him look loveable. With elections six weeks away, Kerry has made some more changes to his campaign staff. These changes may or may not work to lift his image but all this has definitely given President Bush an advantage.

To everybody’s surprise this presidential contest in shaping up into a personality contest as opposed to issues contest. Last two weeks have been spent in debating whether Bush has a clean war services record or Kerry has legitimate war medals to his credit. Surprisingly the CBS News joined the fray only to relent a week later.

If it comes to personalities then Kerry has lost already. Bush has been projected to be loveable, smiling and jovial character, reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s portrayal to the American public. Kerry on the other hand is unable to shatter his dull, flip-flop and unfocussed image. Relatively Bush is no intellectual giant. He is terribly dependant on his advisors of questionable philosophies. A big percentage of American people believe that Iraq war is not Bush’s doing but was created by his advisors in Pentagon and including his Vice President. Kerry is lot smarter. He is independent and a seasoned politician. He is too smart to carry forward a bad advice. If Kerry wins, the American public could look forward to fast US withdrawal from Iraq and refocus of energies on domestic issues. It will be a replay of Bill Clinton’s election and focus back on economic and social issues. The latter are key to the American prosperity.

Hence, here lays the problem in Kerry’s campaign i.e. delivery of the message and polishing of the image.

Impact on India, Whether Kerry wins or Bush retains his Job.

Kerry has been a critique of outsourcing of IT and BPO jobs to India. Hence India has to watch his election carefully. On the other hand he is a strong critic of President Bush’s embrace of General Musharraf of Pakistan. His campaign aids have repeatedly said that Pakistan continues to be a transit point of terrorists worldwide including the current crop of Arabs and Pakistanis who are fighting the Americans in Iraq. Also Kerry does not like the present set-up in the US State Department. The latter is a thorn on Indian side. Hence, India should welcome Kerry’s election. But India also has to watch for its business interests.

Bush is making a few kind noises towards India. A few days back he removed some restrictions on import of technology to India’s nuclear program. But the cost he is asking India to pay is very high. India’s arch enemy Pakistan is being armed with high tech weapons, pumped with free money, human rights abuses in Balochistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir etc. are overlooked and General Musharraf is encouraged to keep his military as well as the President’s job after squelching democracy at home. Ask any Indian diplomat in New York and he will tell you that US is too soft with Musharraf. During Bill Clinton era outright support to Musharraf was not possible. He would have linked military and economic aid to catching Osama Bin Laden. I belive Kerry if elected will do the same.

The Indian Diaspora in US is a bit confused. They generally wish to support Democrats, but this time around they are unable to do so because of Kerry’s anti BPO assertions. They are also a bit confused on Kerry’s attitude towards Pakistan, which he has never clarified. Bush is going all the way to court the votes of the people of Indian origin. One reason for removing restriction on import of technology to India so close to the elections has been to sway Indian origin votes to his favor. The flip side is that he is going to reward General Musharraf in a much bigger way with military hardware that too to sway Pakistani origin votes to his favor.

President Bush has my support if he reins in his State Department and be a bit more realistic towards India. After all, India is a fully functioning democracy and a strategic business partner. Pakistan cannot fulfill that role. Kerry will be my choice, should Bush go too far in his encouragement to General Musharraf.

Unless a serious turn around occurs in Kerry’s fortunes, he will still be a senator after November Elections. But the white house will be President Bush’s for next four years. On the other hand a serious challenge to American military occupation in Iraq (also in Afghanistan) will undermine President Bush’s second bid to his job. Capture of Osama Bin Laden will strengthen President Bush’s claim.

Hari Sud