By: Hari Sud
harisud@hotmail.com
July 19, 2003

This is three times in four weeks that leaked reports from US sources or Pentagon hired analyst (John E Carbaugh Jr, in a website US-India friendship.net) have been quoted to say that US is seeking military bases in India. These sources state that a spate of Joint US – India land, air and naval exercises have a purpose. These are meant to size up the armed forces of India by US, which previously have never been accorded a high respect by the US brass. The latter think that Indian military leaders provide scanty information and are restrained by the politicians. This situation is being corrected by military to military contacts between the two countries. Additional impetus to the cordiality is being provided by purchase of US military hardware by India in last two years.

Let us examine the strategic aspect of the possibility of this association:

Geographically, India is a peninsula with a huge seacoast and two hostile neighbours to the north and to the west. The seacoast touching the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean puts India at the centre of the major sea routes carrying energy from Gulf region to South Asia and South East Asia, Japan, Australia and possibly China. Commerce, manufactured goods and raw material is carried towards Europe, Middle East and Africa from these countries. It’s the second busiest sea route of the world (quoting 1999 statistics), hence this makes Indian Ocean vitally important to the US, which is the sole super power and guardian of the world order.

In this contest let us examine the strategic importance of India.

Economically:

Economic progress in last 50 years was pitiful (save 5 years from 1998-2003), hence India had no clout
 in the world affairs. Nehru and Krishna Menon acquired some influence in the world affairs from 1950 to 1962, when colonialism was being ended and Cold war at its height. But this influence died with Chinese invasion of 1962. After that Nehru got sick, Menon was fired and whatever moral influence India had carved out for itself, vanished. Successive prime ministers after that were either quarrelsome or lacked the vision to make India great. Also the economic model of the planned economy in a democratic and deeply religious country was not working. Economic progress bogged down in vested interest and rules & regulations. During this period, it was hard to find anybody who will invest in India except the World Bank loans and the IMF. Hence, famines visited often (50s, 65-67, 72-74 etc.). Population exploded and poverty level stayed same or dropped a bit. Planned economy mega projects, failed to deliver or were out of date when built. Same thing was happening in China but the state of the economy was a state secret hence nobody new anything about it. At US behest China decided to reform its economy and breake off from the Soviet Union. In return China received a $40 Billion a year in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) starting from 1983.

India was forced on this path in 1994, half-heartedly when our Foreign Reserves fell below where no banks were willing to finance India’s day to day trade. Gold reserves held in India had to be mortgaged to the Bank of England to continue purchases of raw materials and spares to keep the industry’s wheel turning. In this backdrop, the NDA government of 1998 started on the task of reforming the economy in a big way without a Chinese type of shock therapy. Chinese could withstand a shock therapy, because they are a Communist dictators, hence any dissent could be squelched (Tinamen Square Massacre). In India’s case a sudden change of wheels could bring labour, white collared people and the capitalists on to the streets and bring the elected government down. Hence slow pace of the reforms model was adopted.

Still with above circumstances and practically little FDI, an impressive average 6% growth (1998-2002) has been achieved. Agriculture has progressed far beyond expectations. Vagaries of Monsoon are still there, but their impact is much smaller. This has put India in a position to exploit other resources as world markets demand.

In this 15 years delay, Chinese managed to corner the world’s labour intensive manufacturing sector. Most of the FDI in China is related to the US and the Europeans companies, relocating their manufacturing capacity to low cost Chinese provinces where labour is cheap and infrastructure is good. Well done by them.

During this time frame, India had two things going for it. First the schools, colleges and universities turned out graduates, who spoke English (left over of the British colonial days) and second the graduates had a tremendous capacity to be innovative, using their God given gift of superior brains. In late eighties, beset with high cost of skills and in nineties shortage of skills, US started to look for countries where cheap brains power could be exploited. The computer field, especially the software development area lay wide open to India. It started as a trickle in 1989. Then in 1995, the floodgate opened. There were a huge number of Indian expatriates systems specialists working in US, undertaking complex systems development work. Individual of Indian origin floated companies to take advantage of the growth. They later became giants of the software world. Not to be left behind Europe also opened up to India’s systems professionals. So did Australia and other countries.

This infused a new confidence in India and in its ability to be part of the world market place for goods and services. Minor adjustment in rules and regulations brought great surge in manufacturing, exports, services and infrastructure. The latter, still controlled by the government, lacked behind other sectors in progress. An average 6% growth as the government statisticians stated (later confirmed by outside consultants) put India on a map of a decent progress.

Suddenly India was on the radar screen of the West. At this pace India’s GNP will triple by year 2017. Exports today at $50 Billion will hit $150 Billion in 15 years. Foreign Reserves will always be maintained equal or above the debt, hence making India a debt free society. Our Prime Minister got invited to the G-8 Summit in France. India after 200 years looked to be strategically important.

The point I am making is that in order to play any role in the world affairs – immediate or strategic, you need a healthy economy. It is beginning to happen now – 50 years too late.

May I make one more point here, Chinese with iron clad stranglehold on the world manufacturing today is at a disadvantage because the US/ Soviet rivalry has ended. The US and the West, could relocate manufacturing to other cheap labour countries any time they wish.

International Relations

Road to understanding India’s viewpoint in the world matters lies through Washington. This was the most neglected aspect of India’s foreign policy for the last 50 years. This was realized as a weakness in our foreign policy by the new NDA Government. They immediately after winning the power started to remedy the situation. The venerable Foreign Minister of India (Jaswant Singh) was given the task of winning over US and end the unspoken diplomatic hostilities of the earlier governments. Two years and countless discussions, resolved most issues. Washington pleased with the results scheduled an official presidential visit to India in the Year 2000 with a great amount of fanfare. No president of the USA had paid an official goodwill visit to India after Eisenhower in 50s (a brief visit By LBJ was paid, but went un-noticed same is true one other time). This major shift in US attitude brought an improved climate for Indian systems professional in USA, transfer of technology – a sticky issue, received a further boost. Trade barriers started to dismantle and Indian Prime Minister visited USA twice in last three years on goodwill missions. The media and press hostility in the US towards India slowly started to decrease and in general coupled with success of Indian floated companies in the Silicon Valley brought in a sea change in general public attitude towards India. Gone were days when, America saw India with a begging bowl. Now India was being seen as technology super power.

US and Europe did not promise anything. But in the back rooms talk of granting India a Super Power status with a permanent seat at the UN Security Council was gathering steam. It would have happened by now but the sticking point is over all reform of the UN. Hence with this the Strategic position of India has dramatically improved.

Military

India has two major military headaches. Nuclear armed Pakistan to the West and very clever and nuclear armed China to the north. Pakistan is a non-issue. Sooner or later it is going to crack under the weight of its desire to match India in Military expenditures. This leaves India competing with China not only in economic matters but also in military matters.

Is china a serious threat on the northern border?

Not likely. Because with improved military situation in India’s favour after 1962 and a hostile and very inhospitable Tibet to cross puts Chinese armies at a great disadvantage to wage a war on India. Although Chinese capability for mischief in support of its friend and ally Pakistan still exists yet the real threat level from China is at the sea.

Singapore to Suez

1. This is a 4,000 miles sea mass bottled between these two choke points. Arabs control the Suez choke point and American/British control the Singapore. Either one of them is of great strategic importance to the world.
2. In between these two choke points lies the Indian landmass, where ocean going ships must call for repairs, rest & recreation, Pick-up and drop off commerce
3. Karachi and Colombo are other places for r & r but advantages for ships to stop and refurbish there are very little
4. India’s Andaman & Nicobar Islands in Bay of Bengal are ideally located to provide security on the eastern leg of the journey of the ships.
5. Bombay/Cochin provide security during the western leg of the journey.
6. With American presence in Diego Garcia and India taking a greater role to ensure peace in the region, the sea routes are well protected.

Who has maintaining security in these sea lanes 1950-2000?

This was never an issue from 1950-2000. Occasional visits by US 6th and 7th Fleet showed the American flag from time to time. US could rush a huge force very quickly from Mediterranean or from Okinawa. It happened in 1962 when Chinese struck at NEFA, India. It happened again during 1965 (Both Rann of Kutch affair and border war), 1971- When East Pakistan became Bangladesh and again during Operation Brasstack in 1986, During Gulf War 1 in 1990-91, 1998 when terrorists struck in Kenya & Tanzania, 2001 during War on Terrorism in Afghanistan, 2003 during Gulf War II. Diego Garcia has never been an operational base for the US Air Force. A small facility exists on this un-hospitable island in southern part of the Indian Ocean. It gets activated from time to time (1990, 1998, 2001, 2003) to meet the upcoming requirements.

During the War on Terrorism in 2001, US asked and got docking, refurbishing facilities for its war ships at the Indian ports. Then again same facilities were used during the Gulf War II. Pleased US, has rewarded the Indian government by scheduling naval exercise to prime up the Indian Navy.

During Reagan era, a desperate effort was made to lease a Sri Lankan port by US. The port is located in Tamil area, which is considered hostile to US interests. Similarly the port of Karachi has been ruled out as located in a hostile territory after 11 Frenchmen died in a bomb attack in 2002. Hence both these ports are unsuitable for US interests.

Indian naval facilities meet all the US Navy requirements; hence indirect noises are being made by Pentagon to ask for a long-term lease on these facilities. These days, noises have become a rumble and I believe discussions are well underway to let US use Indian Naval port facilities in the Arabian Sea. In return, US will let India have greater access to technology, help build up Indian economy on a Chinese scale with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) etc. etc.

Role Of the Indian Navy

India has decided to build Indian Navy in a big way. Naval Ships of Russian origin are joining the navy two every year. Submarines with French design have been delivered. Additional submarine building with French technology is underway. Delivery and modernization of Russian Gorshokov Aircarft Carrier, Akula submarines, long range bombers and naval reconnaissance planes are in advance stages of discussion. A nuclear powered missile-launching submarine of Indian design is under construction in India. Barak anti ship missile system has been installed on a few ships to eliminate Excocet Missile threat. A modernized C41 system has been installed to eliminate threat of Jamming and snooping. The Andaman Nicobar island’s Port Blair is being built up into a large Naval facility.

The above is a huge naval build-up. Already navy has received a larger share of funds in budgets since 2000 as compared to previous years. This is turning Indian navy into a capable blue water navy as opposed to coastal defence force.

Where as the US interest is to maintain order in this restive region of Middle East, the Indian interest is to protect Indian sea lanes from its western neighbour’s sneak attack in the Arabian Sea. Also India has to reduce the threat level from Chinese naval presence off the coast of Burma. Currently Chinese are building their navy for adventurism in the China Sea and Indian Ocean. They have already demonstrated that commitment by threatening smaller neighbours by deploying a huge naval force during its dispute with Vietnam for two oil rich islands. A similar threat was made to Taiwan when the newly elected President of Taiwan decided to declare independence.

What is Chinese interest in the Indian Ocean?

One could only guess it as adventurism on the same scale as various US fleets indulge in seas of the world. This threat is real to India in the near and distant future. During 1971 War in Bangladesh, China massed troops opposite NEFA and Sikkim to help Pakistan. This threat level was ignored by India because harsh winter was about to start. The latter would have prevented any Chinese sneak attack in support of Pakistan. Also at that time Chinese navy was a bunch of old Soviet ships incapable of mounting any threat. Now the Chinese Navy is much improved. It has acquired the punch it needs to operate away from its coast. Also, in last 10 years, Chinese have befriended Burma (against the wishes of the whole world) and acquired an island to monitor and spy in the Arabian Sea. This is one of the many reasons that India has decided to upgrade Port Blair facilities.

Other Navies in the Indian Ocean

Other than the US and the Indian Navy, no other Navy of the world has any presence in the Indian Ocean. Other Indian Ocean littoral countries have small navies, which are mostly coastal defence ships. Their threat level is not a serious factor in planning.

Missile Defence Shield

The much-touted missile defence shield is a stripped down version of the Star War Missile Defence Shield, which Reagan administration dreamt off. It is designed to prevent any small nation like North Korea, Iran lobbying a missile at US cities. This is about 20 years programme. Hardware design, tests etc. have had a low intercept rate. But sooner or later the technology will be perfected and a missile shield will be built over US/ Canada. But this may not enough if a hostile missile is launched from Asia. The trick is to tackle the missile immediately after launch, where detection and interception is easy. Hence India becomes important to the US to build a missile shield node.

India has offered to participate in the program as soon as it was announced three years back. US agreed to consider India as one of the country to locate a detection, interception facility. For India the benefits are immense:

US & India will be further tied into defence arrangement

A detection and interception node will be able to shoot down an intercontinental missile launched by China at India

Technology will help improve the intercept rate of smaller missiles with shorter range launched at India by its hostile neighbour to the west.

These arrangements will further strengthen the economic relationship with US.

China & US

US and China have nothing in common. All that charade of friendship put up by President Nixon in 1973 and onwards by successive presidents was a marriage of convenience. China helped the US to corner Soviet Union. In return they got massive financial aid. The situation dramatically changed after the USSR cracked in 1989 and need for strategic partnering with China disappeared. Now China is tolerated in Washington because it has the Veto status in the UN Security Council. Also US has invested way too much money in China. The net result is that pain of reducing or stopping this dependence is very expensive. An easier choice is to let investment run its full cycle. When time comes for re-investment then it is likely that US will locate its manufacturing base to other countries with cheap and smarter labour (India). Moreover an economically strong China will aspire for a super power status. US may be unwilling to tolerate rivals.

Israel – India – US Axis

This axis is in the formative state. Its purpose is to prevent spread of political impatience in the Muslims world. Between three above states there is convergence of interest i.e. prevent - Muslim victory in Palestine, Kashmir and another 9/11 type of carnage on the American soil. Currently Muslim masses are fed a religious propaganda to bolster their determination to fight the non-believers. It is a serious challenge to the US hegemony & and the very existence of Israel and India.

Israel and India have been building a military and technological relationship for the last 10 years. This relationship acquired a new dimension during Kargil of 1999. With Phalcon delivery and possible Arrow delivery this year or next, India/Israel relationship will be strengthened further. Israel is the back door for India to acquire sophisticated US technology. US is mindful of India’s predicament with its Muslim neighbour to the west and would like to help. Letting India use Israel as one stop military supplier after Russia is the least difficult option it has.

Merits of this alliance are numerous. Israel gets India’s moral support for its fight against human bombs of Palestinians. India gets the technology. US, increases its influence further in Asia.

Conclusion

Hence, India stands to benefit immensely with strategic partnership with US. India with small help from US could keep the shipping lanes of Asia open. In addition it could effectively check mate Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. As a bulwark against complete theocratic take over of the Green Crescent of Middle East, India could provide muscle to the American power in Asia.

Finally India could achieve the pre-eminent status, which India has strived for so long.

The author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc. and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A graduate of Punjab University and University of Missouri; Rolla, the author is a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager.

Hari Sud