Following topics are discussed
- Aiding and Abating Insurgencies
- Motives of Overt Operators
- Digital Revolution and Consequences of Two US Wars
- Motives of Covert Operators
- Unintended Consequences
- Impact of Demographic Changes
- Caliphate Dream
- Victims of New Muslim Political Reality
- Reference and notes
In an Op-ed, “Harsh lessons from regime change,” Irfan Husain commented on the state of political upheaval caused by the Arab Spring revolutions and arrival of Islamist militants’ leaders to replace previous dictators. Mr Husain is against Islamist militancy and he observed, “The path to hell is indeed paved with good intentions.”
Mr Husain has covered obvious parts played by various international actors. The Islamists have filled the political vacuum to set the stage for political upheavals in the Middle East (ME) that is home to the ideological Islamic states.
By its constitution Pakistan (PK) is an ideological Islamic state. For decades (1979 – present) PK has been known for the me-too Arabs called Miskeen and militancy. For upcoming elections (May 11, 2013) a political scientist Niaz Murtaza has analyzed PK politics from academic structural point. He observed PK kingmaker groups include the military, the media, mafia, militants, judiciary, industrialists, landlords and some foreign countries. Some groups are for a stable democracy. The militants abhor democracy and see their version of caliphate – an ideological Islamist state – as a better governance option for Pakistan.
I argue that PK militants co-linked to al Qaeda started a global wave of Islamic extremism (1994 – present) and that the days of the ideological Islamic states are numbered in 21st century. The world community is unified against religious extremism of any kind. Islamist militants are driven by the single minded mission I call the Caliphate mania.
Readers are highly recommended to learn how covert PK actions have fueled instabilities all over Muslim world. An article by Myra MacDonald and a book by Columbia U Professor Stephen Tankel are good starting points.
Aiding and Abating Insurgencies
Many Muslim pundits paint the US and NATO nations as culprits for aiding and abating the insurgents in ME forgetting that covertly some Muslim nations are also engaged in the acts. For example arms from West are supplied to insurgents by sectarian Arab nations aligned with Saudi Arabia or Iran camps. The sources of chaos in insurgency infested nations are Muslim sectarian rivalries and arms supplies from Western and Communist nations. Both arms suppliers and rival Muslim camps are fueling insurgencies as each has ulterior motives. Blaming only the US by self serving pundits should no longer be acceptable.
Motives of Overt Operators
What follows is well known. The US and NATO war actions are to protect their national interests, which include neutralizing potential military threats (e.g., the Caliphate dreamers or Islamists, al Qaeda co-linked Taliban) and accesses to energy resources and inexpensive skilled labor in Middle East, South and Central Asia. As long as dictators serve the policy interests they are tolerated; otherwise overt and covert actions are taken to replace them.
Colonization is no longer in the US and NATO nation game plans. People in the affected nations are left to deal with any political vacuums that surface. Instabilities in MuslimLands and spillover of violence to nations like India and Israel are acceptable collateral damages. The instabilities experienced by affected nations are exposing short comings of Muslim political ideology. Nations like India and Israel have been forced to put in place mechanisms for the spillover damage-control and build defensive capabilities to counter threats posed by the Caliphate dreamers.
I feel the Islamist ideology is no more relevant in modern global politics. Addressing the presumed British logic for creating Pakistan Mr Shabbir Ahmad Khan added PK has to choose between a modern, progressive, secular and stronger nuclear power and a conflict-ridden, tribal and conservative society with extremist leanings. History tells us that nations or states collapse only when they refuse to change and insist on being foisted to the moorings of a decadent and eroded social and political order.
A nuclear Pakistan is heavily convulsed by internal violence linked to religious extremism. Mr Khan has addressed why Pakistan may be a vanishing state. After World War II, colonial powers gave independence to many nations, including Pakistan, with a clear rationale or prime motive. At a very critical juncture in history, if states lose their rationale, they lose their right to survive. Pakistan is passing through a critical juncture of her history. If she loses her rationale, she loses her right to exist.
Digital Revolution and Consequences of Two US Wars
The overall dissatisfaction with the outcome of two wars coupled with insights gained through global internet connectivity the Muslim youth set in motion Arab Spring revolutions. Youths using digital devices forced several Muslim nations to experience Arab Spring uprising.
The vengeance driven US attacks after the 9/11 event were to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban in AF-PK (Afghanistan-Pakistan) region. The US went a step further with invented excuses to destroy Iraqi dictatorship and set up a process for democratic election. In spite of sectarian violence and a flawed election process elected Iraqi representatives formed a government before the US pulled out of Iraq after 7 years.
Both actions – the revolutions set in motion with the digital technology and two wars by the US – have left political vacuum in several Muslim nations. Much to consternation of secular world local Islamists have filled the vacuum marginalizing the secular students who started the uprisings.
I believe several weaknesses of Muslim ideology were responsible for political vacuum in Muslim nations. The weaknesses Muslim governments were exposed by actions of the US and youth with the digital technology.
The two wars exposed the weaknesses in military power of Muslim nations. The Arab Spring revolutions exposed political weaknesses of Muslim ruling establishments. Several Muslim nations are in disarray because of structural weakness of Muslim political ideology and weak governments incapable of handling pressures of demographic changes.
Motives of Covert Operators
Why was it okay not to acknowledge in the article by Mr Husain the covert part played by PK in instigating two US wars? The PK Islamist establishment operated covertly until recently; a collection of various Taliban factions and their handlers until 2011 operated largely beneath the surface.
Al Qaeda co-linked Taliban were brain child of the delusional Arab leaders and the active and retired Islamist PK army Generals with an agenda to establish hegemony in Central and South Asia in pursuit of a Caliphate political order. The plans for regional hegemony were derailed by the two US wars (2001 – present).
The Defense of PK Council (DPC or Difa-e-Pakistan Council) is a front of the army-ISI establishment to control militant leaders. The DPC, a new alliance of Islamist groups is campaigning for a break in ties with the United States and an end to warming relations with India. The army-ISI tutored DPC leaders are giving clear shape in many years to an underworld of hyper-nationalism, militancy, sectarianism and faith-based politics.
PK also is internally destabilized as the army-ISI managers have lost control of some militant groups. Insurgencies have surfaced in several parts of PK. The militants now number an estimated more than 100,000. A Google search found more than 23 million results in 0.22 seconds. Four examples are cited in references and notes to show the information that sheds light on the consequences of loss of control of the brain children of the PK army-ISI.
Impact of Demographic Changes
In medieval times global population was about 15% of the present 7 billion global populations. In the Caliphate lands the governing rule was “might is right.” It was much easier to invade, control and manage sparsely populated lands of militarily weak princely states.
In 66 years PK population has grown about 5 times; in 1947 the bifurcated PK population was about 70 million. At independence Pakistan’s eastern wing had more people estimated at close to 40 million than the four western provinces put together. Today two nations of PK and Bangladesh have a total of about 350 million; the population of Bangladesh now is about 160 million against Pakistan’s close to 200 million. The new PK Caliphate masters don’t have time to care for its 200 million; they are consumed by delusion to establish hegemony over Central and South Asia.
The DPC leaders have terrain in sight and manpower is not a problem as the fodder for war mongering is about 100 million youth with madrassah brand education. What the delusional Caliphate dreamers lack is money. In recent past money came from the US and Arab lands. Like in the medieval times, now challenges are to invade, hold and loot the occupied lands to solve the money crunch.
In 20th and 21st centuries the global political spectra have changed. Israel – a Jewish nation – was born in 1948 and on January 26, 1950 the Republic of India appeared after dissolving all princely states and incorporating it into Hindu majority portions of the British India. A bifurcated PK in 1947 was carved out of the British India. PK has been at war within (1971) as well as against India (four wars from 1948 – 1999). PK army lost all wars though some were not lost convincingly. In 1971 it disintegrated into present PK and Bangladesh. On going insurgencies within PK may lead to additional fragmentation unless as Mr Khan explained global powers decide to eliminate a nuclear armed ideological Islamist PK that has lost its British and the US rational for existence.
Victims of New Muslim Political Reality
Unlike in medieval times, in 21st century there are no princely states left in South Asia for the marauding gangs of Islamist to invade, hold and loot the occupied territories. Sooner than later, Islamist will be facing bankrupt economy in the new political reality.
The collateral damage is inevitable outcome of all changing political realities. Victims of developing Muslim political reality are innocent civilians in nations – Israel and India – on the borders of Muslim Lands of OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference), which may be a nascent Caliphate.
Crimes against humanity are committed by the delusional Islamist leaders invoking Islam that deny equality to women and non-Muslim faiths followers. Otherwise sane Muslim Op-ed pundits ignore root causes of Muslim nation’s political problems and blame the powers that seek access to energy resources and skilled labor by tolerating Muslim dictators who are willing to work with them. For Western powers and delusional Islamist the sufferings of innocent victims are an acceptable collateral damage.
References and notes
- Irfan Husain, “Harsh lessons from regime change,” Dawn, April 1, 2013
- Niaz Murtaza, “A Stable Democracy?” Dawn, March 26, 2013
- Myra MacDonald, “Difa-e-Pakistan: What we know and do not want to hear”, http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/02/16/difa-e-pakistan-what-we-know-and-do-not-want-to-hear/
- Stephen Tankel, “Storming the World Stage”, The Story of Lashkar-e-Taiba (Columbia/Hurst)
- Tankel observed, “Managing jihadis is more of an art than a science and ambiguous policies by nature create situations in which real control is impossible.”
- Shabbir Ahmad Khan, “Pakistan: A vanishing state,” http://tribune.com.pk/story/529568/pakistan-a-vanishing-state/
- “Major Islamist Militant Groups in Pakistan”; http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakmil.pdf
- “Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehrik-i-Taliban_Pakistan,
- “Haqqani network” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haqqani_network
- “Pakistan’s New Generation of Terrorists”, http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/pakistans-new-generation-terrorists/p15422
- Kunwar Idris, “Friendship with India,” Dawn, April 6, 2013. Mr. Idris is a senior statesman. Only now the statesmen are coming around to acknowledge the following:
- The article offers demographic data for 1947 and present.
- It also briefly states history of PK and explains why it lost its way to be a prosperous nation.
- PK is a collection of fiefdoms. Speaking about ongoing insurgency in Baluchistan, Mr. Idris observed, “The question today is no longer of military conquest but of convincing the people that their security and prosperity lays in a unified Pakistan and not in a series of fiefdoms.
- Pakistan shares its unrest and uncertainty with Afghanistan and to a lesser extent with the Central Asian Republics and Iran, with whom it has little in common except religion, which is more divisive and a source of greater violence in Pakistan than in its north-western neighbors.
- It will not be possible to effect any change in the political and economic direction of Pakistan so long as the country remains embroiled in the conflicts of its neighbors. The answer lies in a fundamental policy shift by promoting cultural and trade links with India. Both would come naturally and easily.
- Pakistan’s cultural and linguistic links with India are rooted in history and the trade routes are diverse and economical.
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