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Whither Pakistan?

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The blog covers following topics:

  1. Introduction
  2. Second Muslim Rule in South Asia
  3. Whither Pakistan?     
  4. Potential Jihadi Nuclear Attacks
  5. Bomb Materials
  6. References and Suggested Reading

Introduction 

Pakistan’s ruling BACWAS (bureaucrats, army, clerics, warlords and scholars) establishment so far has failed to appreciate that future of Pakistan as that of any other nation lies in modernization. Lacking inclination for scientific education Pakistani masses has a long way to go to generate wealth needed for self-reliant sustainable growth. Pakistani youth like their counter parts in Arab nations may imitate youth engaged in the Arab Springs uprising. Muslim youth know, thanks to internet connectivity, why they have fallen behind the progress by youth in other lands. They are intelligent persons being held back by orthodoxy imposed upon them by people dreaming of past glory and living in past. The elders imposing orthodoxy may be sadly mistaken about the power of youth. May be, its time to wake up and smell the coffee?

The BACWAS establishment continues to sympathize with active members of banned Hizbul Tahrir and Islami-e-Jamaat. Both organizations are from same mold advocating Arab ideological domination of South Asian Muslim. Somehow subjugation typical of colonial mindset is still with the BACWAS establishment and advocating originality appears to be alien to its nature. They forget they have awakened youth to deal with.

Unlike progressive constitutional democratic nations, Pakistan ruling establishment does not strive for economic upward mobility of masses by focusing on developing infrastructure for empowering masses with a skilled based education for generating wealth. Faith may enhance inner growth but it is not a sufficient condition for upward economic mobility. In 21st century progressive democratic nation’s governments strive to empower masses with skills for generating wealth. That’s what keeps youth engaged with wealth generation.

Second Muslim Rule in South Asia 

After reviving Muslim rule in parts of the British India in 1947 the British Raj peacefully ended. Violent disintegration in 1971 of Pakistan and birth of Bangladesh put to rest theories floated by the BACWAS establishment. The Muslims of pre-partition India floated bogus theories to justify partition of the British India to create first ever state based on religion. Ethnicity was a problem. Carving a nation out of South Asia occupied nearly 35+ generations ago by the Central Asian Mongol-Turkic and Arabs from Persia and western parts of Middle East was achieved in 1947 for Second Muslim Rule. First Muslim rule lasted from 950 – 1858. After 1971 the reincarnated Pakistan at age 40 is a politically dysfunctional nation.

Muslims orthodoxy shuns modernization with its roots in West and voluntarily submits to domination by Arab tribal ideology to justify its rentier state philosophy. Islamization of Pakistan started with an address to the nation by Dictator Zia ul Haq on December 2, 1978 as the ruling establishment was obsessed with homogenizing the entire population. The zeal for acquiring Arab identities and political ideologies of HT and JI has created a monster state. By discarding South Asian heritage Pakistan is turning into an entity that is neither Arab-Mongol-Turkic variety nor a relatively peace loving Sufi Barelvi genre. The changes touted by the revisionist history of Pakistan are only skin deep as the generic South Asian heritage cannot be eliminated in short time (1971 – present) of its existence.

Whither Pakistan

Europeans and Muslims were responsible for imposing imperial bigotry in colonized lands (3rd – 20th centuries). Except for imperialism from within, the colonization in 21st century is unthinkable except for a delusional paranoid army with dreams for strategic depths using mercenary jihadi forces, terrorism and extremism. In the internet connected world, GPS guided and militarily highly leveraged nations fight wars with proxies or conventional wars of those using strategies of previous centuries for colorizations. The leverage against proxy and conventional wars is GPS guided remote operated drones and other high tech war machines.

Nuclear wars are self-destructive and impractical. The nuclear armed nations in globalized world offer mutual destruction. Potential nuclear deterrence inhibits all but proxy wars by private armies in safe heavens of nations likePakistan.

Nuclear armed Pakistan is limping along with only one of three required legs – political capacity, strong self reliant sustainable economy and substantial military power – as a nation. In recent months it started challenging power of its Western patron, the US.  Nuclear arms unless used as deterrence for survival is likely to invite other nuclear powers to initiate total extinction of all within a certain radius of the explosion. Pakistan may be capable of using its first strike nuclear capabilities but any such attempt will invite retaliations leading to self-destruction.

Other nuclear powers are not intimidated by Pakistan’s tens to hundreds nuclear weapons as they know contrary to political rhetoric the BACWAS elites are anything but stupid. Based on the law of survival the rational expectation is that a sheer fear of being wiped out should inhibit attack with a nuclear weapon.

Potential Jihadi Nuclear Attacks 

They are however concerned and may even be afraid of one or a few nuclear weapons somehow falling in hands of irrational jihadi terrorists and extremists. Any nuclear attack anywhere in the world by anyone based in or originated by the irrational elements anywhere will bring massive retaliations against a nation suspected or proven to be the origin of WMD’s (weapons of mass destruction), clean or dirty.

Consider jihad waged by al Qaeda. The 9/11 attack on the US by the al Qaeda was first strike. America deployed second strike on suspected al Qaeda masterminds in Afghanistan. America in 2001-02 destroyed the al Qaeda co-linked Taliban rule ofAfghanistan (1996 -2001).

Americastands on three very powerful legs: deep political capacity, very vibrant economy ranked number 1 in the world and military power second to none. For more than a decade to counter proxy war strategies America has been active in the Af-Pak region to neutralize jihad by al Qaeda. America’s most effective military counter offensive is the GPS guided drones and air power attacks to destroy terrorists challenge in the Af-Pak region.

Americahas spent about $4 trillion on wars in 1st decade of 21st century to avenge for the terrorist attacks of the 9/11. It is likely to spend another trillion or two from 2011 to 2014 before it leaves the Af-Pak region.

History shows that to end WWII America used nuclear bombing of two sites in fascist Japan. Should irrational radicals for any reason manage to use first strike nuclear attack on any nation in the world that may threaten national interest of developed and emerging economies, in the age of GPS with second strike nuclear capabilities in few days after the nuclear attackPakistan as we know it may cease to exist.

Bomb Materials 

If not nuclear weapons, America has power to economically starve Pakistan to wreck its economy to reduce it to a failed state. The killing of Osama bin Laden by the US shows that when Pakistan is suspected not to take desired actions, the US is willing to violet Pakistan sovereignty with its elite forces and drones to eliminate the problem and terrorist leaders.

Of immediate concern to the US and NATO forces is the bomb making materials freely available in Pakistan. Associated Press, for example, has reported that a key bomb material – calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer – used by terrorist in the Af-Pak region is made at the Pak-Arab fertilizer factory at Multan, Pakistan. Unless Pakistan government enacts laws to and successfully prohibits sale of bomb materials to terrorist the US and NATO may take action against fertilizer plants withinPakistan.

References and Suggested Readings 

  1. Kishan Bhatia, “Proselytizing and Political Ideologies: Truth vs Revisionist History
  2. Kishan Bhatia, “History of Imperialists Bigotry – Christianity, Islam and Pagans” 
  3. Kishan Bhatia, “Heritage and Awakening”  
  4. Kishan Bhatia, “American Wars: Remembering the Victims;
  5. All international political bets by sane leaders are based on cost-benefits analysis. Unfortunately for America in 2011 ten years ago America failed to consider cost benefits of going afterIraq.
    1. In case  of international political initiatives and actions the blowback may appear immediately or as was the case with the first Afghan war, it appeared 25 years later in the form of a terrorist attack by non-state       actors known as the al Qaeda operatives.
    2. Ten years after the event of the 9/11 the US decline has set in and it is linked to weakening economy due to its preoccupation with the endless war in the heart of Middle East and the Af-Pak region. At the same time China, India and other emerging economies are growing rapidly.
  • A marketing aphorism is you pay now or pay later but you must pay if services must be acquired.
    1. A law of nature is for every action there is a reaction.
    2. American arrogance led it to depend on Pakistan. After the defeat in Vietnam War era (1955 – 75) under, starting with President Reagan in 1980s the US paradigm called for outsourcing its wars to maintain regional hegemony of Middle East and South Asia and my contention is that it was responsible for outsourcing the first Afghan war toPakistan.
    3. Americafailed to keep this moral obligation to satisfaction of Pakistan Generals after the conclusion of the       first Afghan War (1979 – 89). The Pakistan Generals created an environment for al Qaeda to lodge in to safe heavens of Afghanistan (1996 – 2001). Rest is contemporary history unfolding in front of us.
  • Not only the US but Pakistan also miscalculated the economic burdens imposed by engaging in an endless wars. Contrary to appearances otherwise, Pakistani BACWAS (bureaucrats, army, clerics, warlords and      scholars) are rational. They focus on the benefits to the rulers and not the masses. Innocent by-standards are expendable as they are illiterate of semi-educated and not relevant to power, unless they participate in jihadi  terrorism and extremism.
  • After my blog appeared I came across the following quantified information onPakistan.
    1. Dr Farrukh Saleem reported that “Every Pakistani man, woman and child is now indebted to the tune of Rs 61,000. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) continues to borrow additional funds at the rate of Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 billion) a day every calendar day of the year. A mere two years ago per capita debt stood at Rs 46,000 while the government’s additional daily borrowing back then was at about half the current rate. ”http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=67096&Cat=9
    2. In my opinion, the above data quantifies Pakistan’s indebted-ness; Pakistan’s population in 2011 is estimated to be at 190 million.
    3. The total debt servicing stands at Rs 473.5 billion and of the total a mere Rs 45 billion is for foreign debt while Rs 428 billion is for the domestic component (10% foreign, 90% domestic).
    4. Some expert claims, “The exponential growth of debt is a structural problem which – unless directly addressed – will swallow all economies, which try to ignore it.”
  1. Christ Brummitt, “AP IMPACT: Pakistani fertilizer fuels Afghan bombs”; http://www.kxnet.com/getArticle.asp?ArticleId=831058
  • The Multanplant legally produced enough calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer for at least 140,000 bombs in 2010. Eighty percent of Afghan bombs are made with the fertilizer, which becomes a powerful explosive when mixed with fuel oil.
  • The rest (20%) bombs are made from military grade munitions including mines and shells.

 

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